‘Aircraft Accidents Are Increasing!’ Really?
Don’t Blame DOGE or DEI Just Yet — Let’s Take a Closer Look at the Numbers
Some people are blaming recent federal government initiatives such as DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) for the supposed increase in aviation accidents, while others are pointing the finger at DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion). However, before jumping to conclusions, the real question we should be asking is: Are aircraft accidents nationwide actually increasing?
We have previously written in this newsletter about the phenomenon of follow-on reporting — where a high-profile accident causes subsequent incidents to be picked up and reported more frequently than usual. This can create the illusion that aviation accidents and incidents are actually on the rise, when in reality, the numbers may not support this perception.
- High-profile accidents and incidents lead to follow-on reporting. Whenever there is a high-profile incident or accident in the aviation industry, it is almost guaranteed that other incidents — ones that might not normally be reported — will also receive media attention, creating the perception of an increase in occurrences.
- Beware of the ‘echo chamber’ effect. It is easy to become consumed by an echo chamber of information from familiar sources, failing to realize that this may not represent reality or the broader set of facts. Diversifying information sources is key to gaining an accurate perspective.
- What does the NTSB data show? NTSB data indicates a decline in the number of accidents and incidents nationwide from the start of the year to the present, compared to the same period in the previous two years.
Get Involved: Do you believe high-profile accidents distort public perception of aviation safety? Or do you think concerns over aviation incidents are justified? Please share your thoughts in the comments below.
The ‘Visibility’ Effect
When an accident is highly visible, such as the tragic Washington, DC mid-air collision earlier this year between an airliner and a military helicopter, it understandably sparks widespread public concern. The result? Increased scrutiny of the aviation industry and an uptick in media coverage of even minor incidents that might not have received attention otherwise.
During emotionally charged moments, public skepticism towards government policies like DOGE or DEI can lead people to attribute aviation mishaps to these initiatives without factual basis. This is especially true in today’s political climate, where aviation safety is being weaponized for ideological battles. However, while it is reasonable to question government actions, it is also crucial to remain grounded in facts rather than sensationalism.
We acknowledge that major accidents such as the Washington, DC disaster, where over 60 lives were lost, are rightfully concerning. But despite the visibility of such incidents, aviation accident data actually shows a decline in accidents and incidents compared to the same period in previous years.
On Aviation™ Note: It is natural for people to be more aware of aviation safety following a major accident, but it is equally important for industry professionals and media organizations to avoid amplifying unfounded fears. Sensationalized reporting on routine aviation incidents can create an exaggerated sense of risk, leading to misperceptions about the actual state of aviation safety.
Beware the ‘Echo Chamber’ Effect
Where we get our information shapes our perception of reality. In today’s media landscape, echo chambers can easily form — especially around polarizing topics like aviation safety. If one’s sources frequently report on aviation accidents and incidents, it may seem as though they are happening more frequently, even if the overall numbers do not reflect an actual increase.
Those who firmly believe that aviation accidents are on the rise may not have been closely following long-term trends in accident data. Instead, they see an increase in aviation incidents being discussed in their usual information sources, leading to a false confirmation bias that aviation safety is deteriorating.
The best way to combat this bias is to actively seek out diverse information sources. This includes:
- Reviewing direct data from authoritative sources (such as the NTSB Monthly Aviation Dashboard).
- Checking independent aviation safety analyses.
- Looking beyond mainstream headlines and politically motivated commentary.
On Aviation™ Note: We must be cautious not to fall into the trap of believing our own press too much. While it is important to discuss aviation safety concerns, it is equally essential to differentiate between actual trends and temporary surges in media coverage.
What Does the NTSB Data Show?
If we want a definitive answer on whether aviation accidents and incidents are increasing, the first place to look is the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). The NTSB maintains detailed records of aviation incidents across the United States, allowing us to track trends over time.
According to NTSB data, from January 2025 to March 2025, the number of aviation accidents and incidents has been lower than the same period in the past three years. In fact, the figures for January and February 2025 are the lowest recorded for these months since 2020.
While it is still early in the year, and aviation incidents tend to increase in later months, current data does not support the claim that aviation accidents are on the rise nationwide. A year-over-year comparison for the last six years suggests that aviation is becoming safer, not more dangerous.
On Aviation™ Note: We all want a safer industry — for both practitioners and passengers — but our discussions about aviation safety must be based on real data rather than perceived trends driven by high-profile accidents.
Conclusion: Facts Over Fear
Aviation remains one of the safest modes of transportation, and despite high-profile accidents, actual data trends suggest that aviation safety is improving, not deteriorating.
The recent focus on aviation accidents is likely a result of increased media attention following major incidents rather than an actual increase in aviation mishaps. The echo chamber effect, combined with political narratives around government policies, has contributed to the perception that aviation accidents are rising, even when the numbers say otherwise.
For those truly concerned about aviation safety, the best course of action is to stay informed using factual, verifiable data. Instead of focusing on isolated incidents, we must look at long-term trends and consider the broader context in which these incidents occur.
Aviation safety is too important to be reduced to political talking points. Instead, we must engage in meaningful discussions, demand continued improvements in safety measures, and ensure that regulations and industry practices are based on actual risk assessment rather than media-driven fears.
Thank you for reading this week’s On Aviation™ full article. Do you believe high-profile accidents distort public perception of aviation safety? Or do you think concern over aviation incidents is justified? Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Remember to check out our On Aviation™ Podcast and continue the conversation on our Twitter and Instagram.
Orlando Spencer — On Aviation™
References
National Transportation Safety Board. (2025). Monthly Aviation Dashboard. Retrieved from https://www.ntsb.gov/Pages/monthly.aspx
